How much of a DCF is just the terminal value?
In a plain five-year model, roughly three quarters of enterprise value sits in one cell. Here is the arithmetic, the sensitivity, and what it means for how much to trust the answer.
Read the pieceMoving Curve
Notes and models on valuation, deals and the businesses behind them.
All writing
RSS2026
Where an LBO's return actually comes from
A simple buyout, taken apart into the three engines of private equity returns. Debt paydown does more work than most people expect, and multiple expansion less.
2025
Reading a 10-K for the numbers that aren't on the income statement
Segment notes, lease schedules and the cash flow statement say more about a business than its headline earnings. A short field guide, with an example of each.